Sunday, July 18, 2004

State of Emergency in Gaza

In view of the escalating violence and kidnappings in Gaza which prompted Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia to declare a State of Emergency in the Gaza strip, it helps to look at the overall larger picture and review the past associations.
 
The Gaza strip has two main sources of authority unlike the West Bank where power is consolidated in Arafat and his Palestinian Authority alone.  Gaza is ruled by two fractions; the Palestinian Authority with a loose coalition of Islamic terrorist groups of which the two largest groups are Islamic Jihad and Hamas.  The terrorist groups receive funding and aid from the Palestinian Authority, Hezbollah and other the Muslim Brotherhood members.  What unites and ignites all fractions is the destruction of the Jewish State by any and all means necessary.  What comes after the destruction of the Jewish State depends on the personal ambitious and platforms of each member group.
 
Former PA strongman who ruled over this unholy alliance is Mohammed Dahlan. He was the official arm of Arafat in Gaza. He represented the "younger" wing of the PA.  At one point, it was suggested that it was Dahlan using his vast organizational skills and connections to arrange the Karin-A arms smuggling ship.  Dahlan grew too strong and entrenched in Gaza that the thugocrat Arafat perceived a threat to his own rule of the PA. One of the qualities that allowed the thugocrat Arafat to survive so long as leader of the PLO/PA was his ability to sense when any one member became too powerful and could potentially pose a threat to the thugocracy and took whatever steps were necessary to neutralize that threat.
 
 That Dahlan was not neutralized sooner, I would suggest is further evidence of Arafat’s declining health and the effectiveness of the Israeli policy of isolating Arafat. Dahlan has spent the last year or so, on the outs with Arafat.  Current relations are extremely strained between the two men. Dahlan has been calling for reforms to end the corruption within the PA while buying himself a palatial villa.  The calls for reforms have been extremely popular with the local population and various militant groups. It has allowed him to further entrench his position in Gaza.  Dahlan is not a raging nationalistic/reformer.  He is a thugocrat in-training who judges that Arafat's time is ending and hopes to be able to exploit the coming Israeli withdrawal of the Gaza Strip for his own ends.   Expect the chaos and mayhem in Gaza to continue until either Dahlan is neutralized or emerges as the next thugocrat-in-charge.





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