If elections were held today, the governing Kadima party would receive a mere nine mandates, according to a telephone poll carried out by the Smith Institute for Ynet. While Kadima is collapsing in public opinion, favor is returning for the Likud party. According to the poll, Likud would triumph in hypothetical elections with a full 32 mandates.
Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu was perceived as the person best suited to serve as prime minister, earning 34 percent support and beating out his competitors by a large margin. After Netanyahu, those surveyed favored Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Labor Knesset Member Ami Ayalon, who each earned the support of 16 percent, then Ehud Barak with 8 percent. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert trailed with only 3 percent of the vote.
The survey, which was carried out Monday evening, questioned 500 adults over the age of 18 and had a 4.5 percent error margin. Those polled pledged their votes for the political parties as follows:
Likud: 32 mandates
Israel Our Home: 10
Kadima: 9
Labor: 9
Shas: 8
National Union-NRP: 6
United Torah Judaism: 5
Meretz: 4
Pensioners: 3
Undecided: 24
Total: 120
Who knew Olmert had so much family in Israel that he could still garnish even 3% support levels? Maybe garnish is the operative word here.
Netanyahu communicates exceptionally well in English but I am not all that amoured of him (I remember Hevron & Wye River). He has waded far too deep into American pockets for my comfort zone but it would be nice to have a semblance of grown-ups running the country. I am not a big fan of Leiberman’s transfer plan, but he does provide hours of fun.
Personally, I would be rooting for Lieberman to receive the defense portfolio which would have the double benefit of keeping Netanyahu too busy putting out fires to get up to much else - while the Palestinians would be busy going into full cardiac arrest imaging Lieberman releasing his inner Russian on them.
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Personally, I would be rooting for Lieberman to receive the defense portfolio which would have the double benefit of keeping Netanyahu too busy putting out fires to get up to much else - while the Palestinians would be busy going into full cardiac arrest imaging Lieberman releasing his inner Russian on them.
Kate, you are so Machiavellian... using Lieberman's lunacy to counter Netanyahu's greedy ambition, and thereby get some sanity (or at least self-defense) into the government.
Playing Israel's favorite coalition game:
Likud 32
Israel Beiteinu 10
Shas 8
NU-NRP 6
equals 56 rightwingers in the Knesset... not quite enough. Looks like we need to wait a little bit.
As for Olmert and his 3%... Most of his family lives abroad. It's a running joke here.
They must have polled the lunatic asylums.
Actually, I think it still looks fairly good. The undecided will either stay away from the polls or distribute among various and sundry.
Likud will get what it needs and will be effectively balanced out by the religious parties and Lieberman. Kadima are such a bunch of opportunists that they would rather live under Bibi's shadow than sit quietly in the back bench. Likud will get what it needs and will be tempered quite nicely. I expect this will be the last election for Kadima.
One more thought, imagine how much fun it would to be a fly on the wall when Lieberman would talk to the US or the EU!
Kate:
Just 'cause Likud will be the next election winner doesn't mean they're all that good. I'm glad they'll be forced into a coalition situation (Shas, for example, will require funding for social services).
Kadima will not survive the next gov't; they were always more Sharon's clique than a real party.
I would like to be that fly. Then I'd have proof why I don't trust Lieberman.
I don't think anyone should trust Lieberman per say, but I do believe one can trust him to be a patriot.
Frankly, I have never felt that way about Olmert and Bibi leaves more questions marks than answers.
I really don't think the pool of leadership material will improve all that much until its finally resolved in the Israeli public's mind whether Israel will either be a Jewish state or just another fully secular democracy.
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