After a year of rumours, Ariel Sharon has finally done it. He has left the Likud to create a new “centralist” political party - as if Israeli politics wasn’t confusing enough, now this. You have to give the 77 year old credit. He has made a career out of upsetting apple carts and he will probably go to his place in the world to come by kicking a cart or two along the way.
He really had no choice if he was to remain relevant in Israeli political circles. His own Likud party is deeply divided and when half your membership despises you anew every time another new story comes to light about the plight of the (former) Gaza settlers and your son is convicted for corruption in campaign financing for your own candidacy – you are in trouble.
How will the Israeli electorate re-act? Who knows? It will also depend on who will be joining the new party. There are rumours suggesting that Shimon Peres is considering leaving his own Labour party to join Sharon’s new “centrist” party. It wouldn’t be surprising, since Labour delegates just handed Peres the political slap in the face when they rejected Peres for the leadership of the party, and instead chose to hand the reins to Amir Peretz as the new face of the Israeli Labour party. Personally, I wouldn’t see that as anything but the electorate kiss of death for Sharon. Peres, the Nobel peace prize recipient maybe revered outside Israel but inside the country he has been commonly described as an Oslo war criminal.
What will be the mission statement of this new political party? The party will not survive more than one term - if that. If its' only rationale for being is simply to act as a safety net to save Sharon an electoral defeat from within the Likud party. Political parties require a strong base for success at the polls. Does Sharon have the infrastructure in place at the grassroots level to carry his party to victory? Again, it depends on the quality of candidates that Sharon will attract to his new party of disillusioned old men.
2 comments:
Over on The Christian Prophet blog the Holy Spirit says Likud will still be a strong influence, but overall the situation will be weaker. Strangely, maybe as a teaching device, it is said that Jews might someday prefer living in Iraq.
Israeli politics are choatic at the best of times but I just cannot envision the scenario where the Israeli's will be taking a walk by the waters of Babylon again.
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