1. Israel must accept a “technocrat” Palestinian Authority (including Hamas ministers) as a road map peace partner.And what is the Bush Administration offering for these acts of national hari kari? Less than bumpkus, but with a photo-op thrown in to wow the folks back home.
2. Israel is expected to authorize transferring thousands of rifles from Egypt to Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas’ president Guard.
3. Accept the deployment of the Palestinian Bader Division from Jordan into the Gaza Strip.
4. Humanitarian aid must resume in order to prevent a rise in popular support for Hamas over Fatah.
Whether Fatah, Hamas or a collection of motley technocrats rule the roost, you cannot make turn the Palestinian Authority into Texas. I believe the applicable down home biblical quotes in this case are - one cannot make what is crooked straight or maybe it’s you cannot make silk purse out of a sow’s ear. No matter, it still can’t be done.
One of the problems of the Bush administration is the belief that if you throw enough money at a problem it will go away. It hasn’t worked in Iraq, and it will not work in the Occupied Territories. Some people really do value ideology over peace, money and security.
Hamas’ rise in popularity occurred when the hand-out tap was flowing fast and freely. Hamas is not popular because it brought in the most charitable donations or graf, but because of its staunch stand to adhere to its’ principle – the destruction of the Israeli state. Turning back on the hand-out tap will not make Hamas less popular – if anything, it will increase Hamas’ image among Palestinians. Not only did Hamas stand firm and adhere to its principles, in spite of suffering, it made the world bend and turn the tap back on.
There is no way Fatah can benefit from this. For a Palestinian leader to claim to have influence and receive largess from the Americans is a sign of the utmost corruption and decadence in the Arab world. For a Palestinian leader to rely on American pressure and intervention to retain power is the kiss of death. Even now, the various Fatah fractions are creating alliances outside of Abbas milieu and it becomes only a matter of time, and not if, when Abbas’ will fall.
The question for the Israeli state becomes; how many of its Jewish citizen’s lives and limbs is the state prepared to throw away currying to American folly?
2 comments:
Fortunately, the it's the Olmert gov't that's likely to go along with this, and I think they be on the way out.
According to Arutz Sheva, if Israeli elections happen today, Likud will get 28 seats, compared to 17 for Kadima, 15 for Israel Beiteinu, and 14 for Labor.
With that kind of support, it really doesn't matter what Kadima does to keep a coalition; they can't last too much longer as the head of gov't.
And the more conservative coalition likely to replace them is not likely to agree to any of those Bush proposals.
I agree Olmert's coalition is weak, and if Arutz Sheva's numbers are accurate, Likud would be in control of a coalition which could be made easily without Labor or even without Kadima - if one brings in the religious parties (Shas, NRP) into a Likud coaltion - which potentially means that the left-wing parties (Meretz, Pensioners and Labor) have a vestiage interest in propping up Olmert's Kadima.
Nor should we forget to mention those that staked their political lives & reputations on Kadima also have a vested interest in keeping Olmert alive.
I have to give credit to Olmert in bringing in Lieberman's Israel Our Home Party into the coalition. I see it as a brilliant tactical move. By bringing in Lieberman he strengthens his coalition, and changes the dialogue from his incompetence to Lieberman's presumed outrageousness.
If I was Netanyahu, I would be actively working to wean or entice whoever I could back from Kadima.
This is where I play fortune teller. I predict that Olmert will go along with all the Bush Admin demands. The Bush Admin will be demanding those concessions now - not later. The Bush Admin recognizes how weak the Olmert government and is savvy enough to take advantage of it to put forward their agenda.
I have never bought into the"two-state" solution because I never believed it was a truly viable option. It sounds nice in principle, but how is a second Palestinian state a viable concern with a territorial split?
The PA has an apalling track record of governance. If they couldn't manage to run a viable administration before the formal trappings of statehood how would they manage to ever rise above the level of failed or dysfunctional?
I am probably one of the few that take the stated intentions of Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad at face value. I truly believe that the stated intentions of the destruction of the Jewish state is the ultimately goal and a quasi-state with a territorial split will never satisfy them for very long. Maybe for one generation but as Israel manages to proper and the Palestinian state flounders another generation will rise demanding their alleged "birthright" aka as Israel.
For there to be peace in the ME I see two things need to be done without the destruction of the world's only Jewish state. Resettlement of the Palestinians and Palestinian Refugees in neighboring countries and war must be made unprofitable for the various neighboring countries. There is a vibrant weapons trade going on supplying this conflict and individuals are growing outrageously rich in supplying the various and sundry terrorist group with an endless supply of weapons.
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