Labor agreed late Tuesday night not to vote in favor of the bill which calls for the dissolution of the Knesset, whether it is brought to the floor on Wednesday, or any time in the coming weeks.
The agreement was a result of a meeting at the home of Defense Minister and Labor chairman Ehud Barak between Labor secretary-general Eitan Cabel, head of Kadima's steering committee, MK Tzahi Hanegbi, and Agriculture Minister Shalom Simhon, which lasted several hours and allowed both parties to avoid a potentially hazardous political showdown.
According to the agreement, Kadima promised to convene a committee on Wednesday which would begin the process of primaries for choosing a new chairperson. On Monday of next week, the Kadima faction will discuss the results and 10 days later, the Kadima council will convene to determine an exact date for the primary elections, to be held before September 25. Should a run-off election be needed as well, that, too, will be held before September 25.
In Israeli politics, there is no mechanism for throwing the bums out per say. Israeli votes are cast and distributed on system of representation by population. Each party develops list of candidates picked by the internal party system which will represent their fraction in parliament depending on the percentage of votes cast. So if one likes a party, but loathes the upper few members, one has no choice but to take the wheat with the chaff. This system has worked well for maintaining the high level of corruption within the upper echelon of each party. It also explains why a man with few redeeming political morals like Ehud Olmert has not only risen to power but kept power - and woe unto all challengers who lack the appropriate level of suck up gene.
Yesterday, in a private conversation I remarked that there was a better than average chance Ehud Olmert’s government would survive today’s no-confidence vote. My acquaintance didn’t believe me. He had just returned from Israel and reported the mood of the country was a definite ‘throw the bums out’ but today I am right. What my acquaintance didn’t fully grasp was just how desperate these political capos are to survive.
If an election was called tomorrow all two top parties; Kadima and Labor potentially face the wrath of the electorate and stand a better than normal change of failing to hold onto anything more than a third of their current seats. One poll had the ruling Kadima party down to 5 seats from 29. The Pensioners party would have been wiped out. I have no idea what current internal polling had the Israeli Labor party down to but it must have been pretty darned frightening for Ehud Barak to strike this deal with Ehud Olmert, and so, Ehud Olmert - the man who was aptly characterized as Ariel Sharon’s chief gopher - has survived to govern another day. Talk about being born under a telfon star.
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