One of the things I always asked myself when I watch world events unfold is why now? Why at this time and not another? Sometimes, it is a question of random divergent elements only being able to meet at one given point. Other times, those same seemingly divergent elements; merge in a very deliberate fashion and build one event upon another like moves in a game of chess. The interconnectedness of it all only becomes clear in hindsight.
Reading about the events unfold a half a world away I started to ask myself a series of questions once it became clear that the destruction of the Rafah border wall/crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt had been planned by Hamas for months and was not the result of spontaneous uprising/demonstration by the Palestinians. Now I have to ask myself – why at this time rather than another? What does Hamas gain?
I have no answer for question one but an easy answer readily appear for the second question. Hamas breaks the Israeli blockade and controls its own border but here’s the deal. Although, it appears there was nothing substantial (except heavy equipment) which could not be brought in through the seemingly endless tunnels under the Rafah border. Bringing in 100 lbs bags of flour is just as easy as bringing in large cartons of assault rifles. Food was never in short supply until Hamas deliberately shut the bakeries a few days ago. Gaza was the Israeli agriculture bread basket, and while the Palestinians were never able to match the quantities Israeli production methods were able to produce, there was no shortage of produce for local consumption.
Obviously, controlling the border is advantageous to Hamas as it offers a potential revenue stream and allows for the free flow of goods, weapons and men. Ah, there is the rub because free flow works two ways. Hamas can establish a beach head in the Sinai from which to launch attacks against Israel which would be difficult for the Israelis to effectively repel. Imagine the outcry in the aftermath of an Israeli missile strike against a Hamas crew launching rockets into Israel in the midst of Egyptian civilians.
Controlling the Sinai has huge military advantages which was why the Camp David Peace Accords called for the strict demilitarization of the Sinai. For the Egyptians to place the numbers of soldiers needed to combat a counter-insurgency launched by Hamas against Israel from the Sinai means a break with the Camp David Peace Accord - not to mention the general Egyptian antipathy to anything Israeli.
For the Egyptians, policing Hamas’ activities would be an enormously unpopular move. In fact, it could be downright dangerous for the Mubarak government to order a crackdown on Hamas activities. To do so, could potentially play big time advantage into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood. And you need to ask yourself – who is Hamas? The short answer is; the Palestinian chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood. While most prefer to think of Hamas as nothing more than a localized terror group restricted to the alleged liberation of the Palestinians, Hamas’s ideology has always possessed a larger key component - the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate with a fully integrated Palestinian chapter.
This could be the opening moves of a potentially much larger and far more ambitious offensive for both Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. There is no downside for the Muslim Brotherhood in having their armed, trained and ready to die Palestinian brethren establish a forward operations base in the Sinai. Since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip last June there have been reports of large scale military style training operations within Gaza. It seemed obvious to conclude (at the time) that Hamas was just preparing for an inevitable Israeli offensive but what if it was a question of training enough troops to use as a dual or multi-use force?
Mubarak is an old man with a few health scares recently. His government has just shown the world their own impotence by failing to act decisively to secure the Egyptian border before the world’s cameras. This is all conjecture on my part but I think I will start actively searching and watching for news or any movement from US MFO bases in El Arish and Sharm El-Sheikh as well as taking a real long second look at the recent activities of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
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