Friday, January 04, 2008

The Morning After Iowa

Media elites and moneyed CEO’s can cherry pick nomination candidates, but in the end, it always comes down to voting habits of ordinary Americans to elect presidents. The morning after Iowa, it would wise for all to remember it. The papers today are filled with Obama’s thumping Hillary in the mud and very slim on the Huckaboom which continues to reverberate across the GOP nation.

Huckabee not only carried the social conservative vote but he also polled astoundingly strong in two other groups in Iowa – youth (40%) and women (41%). Much is often made about the potential power of the so-called youth vote but it rarely translates into anything viable because, well, youth rarely follow through on the initiative and actually cast a ballot. Standing around, waiting in line to cast a vote always makes doing anything else look so much more appealing to the so-called youth voters on voting day. It goes ditto for women. For most women voters, it is not a question of everything looking more appealing than casting a ballot but the twin question of time and priorities. Standing in line at the polling station or attending a caucus meeting after their official working day ends means giving up one of the most precious commodities working women have – time to care for their families.

So the fact that both youth and women showed up for Huckabee is incredibly significant. What remains to be seen is if the Huckaboom can translate a strong showing from both these groups in other GOP caucuses. If he can, and at the same time keep the social conservative base engaged, he will win the nomination.

Mitt Romney. Let me start out by admitting to a certain sense of smugness concerning the hugeness of the Romney loss. There is something just so satisfying watching all the king’s men and all the king’s money showing just how little can actually be bought in heartland America. And then there is the innate pleasure of being right – that just never gets old. Romney may not realize it yet, but its time to fold shop and go home.

Romney may have the money and be the official choice of the MSM conservative spokesmen of the GOP but he doesn’t carry its heart or soul. Huckabee summed it up pretty well on the Jay Leno show when he was asked to explain his appeal. He suggested it was because he reminded caucus goers of the guy they work with rather than the one who laid them off.

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