Friday, December 03, 2004

Declaration of Intent?

Two items caught my attention yesterday. The First from the CBC:
Some 200 masked young men and women gathered at a Tehran cemetery Thursday to pledge their willingness to carry out suicide bomb attacks against Americans in Iraq and Israelis.

The ceremony was organized by the Headquarters for Commemorating Martyrs of the Global Islamic Movement, a shadowy group that has since June been seeking volunteers for attacks in Iraq and Israel.

A spokesman, Ali Mohammadi, described Thursday's group as the "first suicide commando unit," though another official has claimed members already have carried out attacks in Israel. "Sooner or later we will bury all blasphemous occupiers of Islamic lands," Mohammadi said.

Sunday, Iran's deputy interior minister for security affairs told reporters the movement had no official sanction and said such groups could operate only "as long as their ideas are limited to theory." The group, though, has the backing of some prominent hard-line Iranian politicians.

In the absolute totalitarian grip of Mullah Iran you would have to be utterly naïve to buy the official line that these groups do not have state sanction. If the Mullah's grip extends to the selling of women's panties; it breaks the bounds of incredibleness to believe they would not control or regulate political and/or paramilitary groups? But the question, we in the west, should take be asking ourselves is; why now?

The second item came from the Washington Times:
Recent intelligence shows Iran has been working to produce a missile re-entry vehicle containing a small nuclear warhead for its Shahab missiles and has encountered problems developing a reliable centrifuge system for uranium enrichment, U.S. officials said.

Suicide bombers and nuclear warheads. The first wild guess off the top of my head would be that the Mullah's are not only readying their military for war but also preparing their people psychologically for war - but hey, that's only my two cents.


localharbor at yahoo dot ca said...

The mullahs have several hundred targets related to their nuke program alone. Almost all have been located near civilian targets (schools, hospitals etc) and/or buried and/or otherwise hardened.

I'd be more inclined to expect the US therefore to aid a credible democratic group in a coup to overthrow the mullahs (who are none too popular) from within and replace them w/a democracy.

Just my two cents, but it sure seems a lot more do-able than an all-out war.

I wouldn't expect the mullahs to start such a war themselves, either, since it'd be the end of them and they know it. They are despicable, not stupid. [caveat: if they actually get a functioning nuke weapons program working well enough to intimidate the Americans, well then ... still unlikely they'd attack, but ... maybe?]

Kateland, aka TZH said...

A year ago I ran across a report that predicted they would have nuclear warheads in January/February. For the life of me I have misplaced that report and hence can't reference it. I suspect that the mullah's are much further along then most of us in the West want to believe.

The Mullah are certainly not stupid per say but they certainly believe we are. Nothing we have done has convinced them otherwise. Right now they are busy do their part in de-stablizing Iraq and believe they are effectively keeping the Americans pined down. There is also evidence suggesting(but no smoking gun) that they are helping the forces of choas in Afghanistan as well. What price have they paid for their interference? They certainly believe they hold all the cards and can act with immunity.

They have spread out their nuclear weapons program and effectively divided the UN Security Council. As soon as they agree to anything they renege on it in the next breathe. What measure has the IAEA been able to successfully execute in Iran now or in the future?

So far, they have successfully countered every move the Europeans have tried. They have unlikely allies in high places e.g. China, Russia, France, etc Many in the west hope for a popular uprising against the Mullah's and hence the hope that an external force would not be necessary for regime change.

But how realistic is it to believe that the Mullah's will just lay down in front of the will of the people and give up the ghost? I would think that if an mass uprising were to come to pass the Mullah's would opt to commit an act of aggression to divert attention. They really don't care how many malcontents are killed in the process - Let's say there are uprisings in 3 majors cities. It is the perfect time to create a pretext to strike out at Israel. One thing that could very well rally the population around the Mullah's is for Iran to come under Israeli fire even if Israel is acting defensively. The pathology of Iran is no different than most of the middle east and a hatred of Israel unites everyone. If the mullah's loose a few million malcontents, oh well.

If the mullah's feel threatened enough they will strike out - what do they care if they are going down anyway - better to take a few others along for company.

Quite honestly, they hold most of the cards.