How quick can you say three state solution?

I find it particularly telling how many MSM papers keep using headlines like “Fatah-Hamas on the brink of civil war”. There is no brink. It is a full borne civil war whose Gaza chapter has nearly ended. The next few days will nothing more than a Hamas methodically wiping out the last vestiges of Fatah’s Gaza Strip presence.

Now that Hamas is in the last stages of consolidating their power base in the Gaza Strip, we all need to realize the Quartet’s Middle East Road Map has been fast tracked right off the rails and the two state solution is lying down deader than road kill. Fatah’s day as a power in the Gaza Strip has come and gone - nor is it ever coming back.

Hamas will be spending the following days killing off the remnants of Fatah’s upper and mid-level leader/membership that did not have the good sense to flee the Strip. Nor is Fatah in a geo/political position to be able to launch a counter-offensive from the West Bank into the Strip and wrestle control back from Hamas. I cannot wait to see whether Iran or Syria becomes the first nation to congratulate the Palestinians on the establishment of Hamastan.

So what happens next? Well, it all depends. If Hamas is wise, it will quickly kill off any open support for Fatah within Gaza and restore civil governance ASAP. Secondly, it should start reaching out and making the rounds of the Gulf States and not just for aid but to build the political clout necessary to force international recognition of Hamastan as a separate Palestinian entity. Hamas can use the canard that “Hamastan must be bribed away from the Iranian/Syrian boogieman” which should work with the Arab/Sunni Gulf states as well as seriously tug on the heartstrings of both the Euroweanies and the US State Department.

International recognition of Hamastan is crucial, and not just to obtain needed foreign aid for financing governance, but any action, which can either significantly reduce the pool of international aid available to Hamas’ archrivals (Fatah) in the West Bank or limit the scope of Fatah’s legitimacy internationally is preferable for Hamas prevailing in the long run. While Fatah can be said to control the West Bank, Hamas has a significant fifth column presence in the area while Fatah is seriously hamstrung by the Israeli presence.

All Hamas has to do to prevail in the long run is offer relatively good civil governance (for the Mid-East) in Hamastan and stay out of an open major conflict with the Israelis – at least until they armed themselves appropriately as a state. Fatah is a corrupt and dysfunction organization. If Hamas can show themselves relatively capable of decent governance it can easily seduce the population of the West Bank to follow their lead.

Of course, this all depends if Hamas will be wised. And Fatah, well I suspect Fatah will announce shortly that it will break with the Hamas dominated Palestinian Authority but I have little hope of seeing Fatah reform itself while governing the West Bank. Instead, I suspect we will be watching an internal power struggle within Fatah. Much blood-letting and blame will go around for all.

And what about the Israelis? Let you into a little secret. Contrary to rumour - the Israelis don’t like occupation at that much.