Winograd Report - Yadda, Yadda

In a few hours from now the Interim Winograd Report on the political and military leadership of Israel will be published. It is generally expected to be a scathing criticism of Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, and former IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz decision making and leadership during last summer’s war with Lebanon.

Everyone seems to know its going to be bad but it really is a question of degree. Foreign newspapers are hyping up the idea that the pressure on Olmert and Peretz to resign will be immense.

Here’s the thing. Other than Halutz, who already resigned, no one else is going to. Peretz is facing a leadership race for the Israeli Labour party. He’s currently in third place and trailing badly. Labour has no intention of leaving the Kadima coalition considering how poorly they are currently polling with the Israeli electorate in general. Now is not the political expedient time for an election; if you’re the Israeli Labour party. It’s much easier to vote Peretz out of office using the party machinery to remove a hugely unpopular politician with the Israeli electorate. It will potentially give them a second wind with the voters. Labour may bluster but its not about to leave the coalition but without a significant percentage of Labour MK’s defection, the Kadima government will not fall.

And no one really hungers to be Prime Minister at this particular junction. The general consensus is war is coming and the needed reforms in the IDF have yet to come full circle. Anyone aspiring to be Prime Minister could very well be facing another disastrous campaign like last summer’s adventures in Lebanon. Why bother to get egg on your face now. It’s far easier letting Olmert be buried under another yolking which is part of the reason Kadima is not in a hurry to replace him.

Also, every Kadima Knesset member knows if faced with another election it will be lucky to maintain 9-11 mandates - so there goes the gravy train for most of them. There’s always the potential for Kadima to attempt remove Olmert in a leadership review much like Labour is doing to Peretz. But again, who really wants to be Prime Minister during another war?

Don’t expect to see a leadership review before its time - unless Olmert chooses to resign. And why should Olmert resign? Because he’s done a bad job as Prime Minister? There already is a long line of poor quality Israeli Prime Ministers so Olmert is just taking his rightful place in the line. The only possible motivation for Olmert to resign is because he has an offer of something better to come. If he were to resign at this point the table will be bare. The only two possible serious Kadima replacements for Olmert are Shimon Peres (the man who has yet to win an election) or current Israeli Foreign Minister Livni. The best and worst thing one can say about Livni is that she is no Golda.