Saturday, March 24, 2007

Political Chicken

Iran claims the 15 British naval men have confessed to operating in Iranian territory illegally according to this Jerusalem Post report:
An Iranian military official said Saturday afternoon that the 15 detained British sailors "confessed" to illegally entering Iranian waters. The sailors, taken at gunpoint Friday by Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Al Quds soldiers were captured intentionally and are to be used as bargaining chips to be used for the release of five Iranians who were arrested at the Iranian consul in Irbil, Iraq by US troops, an Iranian official told the daily paper Asharq al-Awsat on Saturday.

In addition, a senior Iranian military official said Saturday that the decision to capture the soldiers was made during a March 18 emergency meeting of the High Council for Security following a report by the Al-Quds contingent commander, Kassem Suleimani, to the Iranian chief of the armed forces, Maj.Gen. Hassan Firouz Abadi. In the report, according to Asharq al-Awsat, Suleimani warned Abadi that Al Quds and Revolutionary Guards' operations had become transparent to US and British intelligence following the arrest of a senior Al Quds officer and four of his deputies in Irbil.

Yeah, like well, we all know the Iranians know the holocaust never happened either – and they had a conference to discuss it.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Will the Bush Administration turn over the Iranian operatives captured in Iraq to the British in order to facilitate an exchange for the British naval men? This is a real murky area and my gut says it’s unlikely - unless all practical information has already been gleaned from the Iranians.

But if that’s so, why would the Iranians be so anxious for their return? The only potential lever the Brits have with the US is by threatening to use their veto in the UN Security Council by voting against the Iranian sanctions issue. Of course, there is nothing to suggest that the Iranians may have already demanded the British use their veto as well as a return of their operatives in exchange for the British naval men.

Here's the real bottom line. The Mullah's have made a political career into hostage taking and faced no serious reprecussions or consequences. There is no motivation for the Iranians to change a behaviour that consistently advances their own interests. Until they are made to face the music these British naval will not be the last to be held hostage by Iran.

6 comments:

Michael said...

I think that the British should simply announce that the Royal Navy now has orders to treat all Iranian flag vessels as pirates on internation waters, and to act accordingly.

If they follow through, they can get the mullahs to cough up the sailors.

If they don't, Britain is doomed to a long, slow defeat at the hands of Islam.

K. Shoshana said...

Your such a cooler head than me. I would have given them 48 hours to turn over my men or I would launch a missile strike Tehran.

Michael said...

Kate, an ultimatum won't work with Iran; they'll see it as a play for time. It'll be better for the Brits to hit hard (I suggested sinking Iranian flag vessels w/out warning because Britain lacks the US's ICBMs), and then tell the Iranian to release the sailors.

It won't work, but it will recognize that there is a state of war between Iran and Britain now.

Chris Taylor said...

I would just as soon have CTF 158 steam over to a large Iranian naval facility and reduce it to rubble.

This is piracy and the RN has a pretty good record in dealing with pirates. If only they'd recall how they used to handle it...

K. Shoshana said...

CT - here! Here! Too bad your not in charge either.

Michael said...

If only they'd recall how they used to handle it...

Didn't they hang pirates and slavers from the yardarms, after confiscating any stolen property, freeing any slaves, and sinking the ship in question?

Hmm... not a bad idea, really.