In an interview with the Kuwaiti daily Al-Anba over the weekend, Assad said, "We are preparing for an Israeli attack at any moment" and said Israel had given up on the peace process even though most of the issues between the two countries had been resolved. Assad has alternated between bellicose declarations and calls for peace in the weeks following the Lebanon war.How downright peculiar Assad’s rhetoric has gotten lately. What are the odds that Assad thinks Ariel Sharon has woken up from his coma, removed Ehud Olmert from government, and is right now holed up in an IDF bunker putting the finishing touches on war plan for a little Israeli payback over this summer’s Lebanon adventure?
It makes one wonder just what exactly Assad’s two new best friends (Iran & Russia) have been whispering in his ear. Assad’s rhetoric is even odder in light of the fact that on one in Israel is even suggesting the IDF darken the skies over Damascus. All the Anglo-Israeli papers I have been reading in the last few weeks have all carried opinion pieces discussing the possibility of peace talks with Syria over the Golan Heights.
Or it just might be that Assad wants to take advantage over how poorly Israel is being led politically by Olmert and militarily by Halutz, and therefore wants to provoke a strike knowing that this same level of ineptness may never come again.
3 comments:
I know that the nutty lefties have always been talking about 'giving back the Golan,' but living here, I can tell you that the reality is very different.
The vast majority of Israelis do not want to let Syria back onto the Golan Heights. There are several reasons:
1) A large portion of the Iraeli population grew up in northern bomb shelters, due to Syrian shelling from the Golan,
2) Possession of the Golan gives Israel full control of the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), and thus water independence. Israelis remember the Syrian-Jordanian efforts to divert the water supply in the '50's and early '60's.
3) The population of the Golan, unlike Judea and Samaria, and Gaza before the withdrawal, is Israeli. There are about 40 thousand residents, of whom slightly more than half are Israeli Jews, and almost all of the rest are Israeli Druze. All of them want very much to remain where they are, in Israel.
What scares me is that the old USSR helped to spark the Six Day War by feeding Syria false intelligence about an imminent Israeli invasion, before there was any Israeli mobilization. And we all know how Iran pulls Hezbollah's strings.
Finally, and also scary, is the appearance that Assad gives of wanting to be his father. However, he is neither as smart nor as bloodily ruthless, and might feel that a war with Israel is his only way to keep power (and his neck).
Michael, what I have a hard time understanding is why is no one saying the obvious - the Israeli state cannot afford to relocate any more people. Moving 18,000 people, plus the devastation to the economy with a surrender of the Golan might just bankrupt the state. The state of Israel still hasn't provided the promised permanent housing to the Gaza Refugees and that was less than 9,000.
Kate:
Don't forget the the 15,000 or so Druze on the Heights, either. The majority of them want to remain in Israel.
Honestly, I think you've hit on one reason why disengagement is dead, no matter what Olmert & Co may say or want.
People here in Israel saw what happened to the Gush Katif evacuees (refugees), and we won't stand for a repeat. Many of us opposed the withdrawal to begin with, and most of the supporters were only lukewarm. Now that it's been shown to be a terrible tragedy and boon to our enemies (rather than just a bad policy), it's not likely that there will ever be a majority to support another disengagement.
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