If Prime Minister Paul Martin is to be taken at his word, only an act of God could deter his government from holding a winter election. At a reception for the parliamentary press gallery last week, Martin left little doubt about his resolve to live up to his commitment to call a vote no later than 30 days after the final report of the Gomery commission next December.
Short of a federal leader being struck by a catastrophic illness, a national emergency or an unlikely government defeat at the hands of the opposition in the House this fall, it does seem that Canada will be going to the polls in a rare winter election. That already has observers of the Canadian electoral scene bracing for a record low turnout. By all past indicators, they have cause to worry. The last winter election, in 1980, resulted in a significant drop in voter participation.
Every winter, scores of senior citizens leave Canada for warmer climes. In normal circumstances, no age group has a higher election turnout. On average, more than 80 per cent of voters over age 55 exercise their franchise. (In Quebec those voters also make up the staunchest group of federalist supporters.)
An Act of Gomery has just saved Mr. Dither’s from a winter election. My cynicism towards liberal malfeasance has now reached no discernable limits.
2 comments:
No, no, no.
Think about it.
If 80% of people over 55 vote, and (I think this is probably underestimating) 70% of those over 55 vote Conservative, then having a winter election would insure that a good block of Conservative support would be out of the country - guaranteeing a Liberal majority.
The number of snowbirds from Quebec are staggering and they are by and large represent either Bloc or Liberal votes therefore a winter election is a decided disadvantage for the Liberals.
I wouldn't put too much stock in the majority of 55+ voters being PC. My mother and father are the original Trudeau generation and they still vote liberal and fond memories of the NDP. Old habits die hard.
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