Situation on the ground: There will be no successor to Yasser Arafat – he made sure of that through his endless manipulations, tricks, and schemes. Instead, this is the moment of the gunmen. Whether they fight for criminal gangs, warlords, security services, or ideological groups (like Hamas), militiamen grasping for land and treasure will dominate the Palestinian scene for months or years ahead.
The sort of persons we are familiar with from past diplomacy or from television commentaries (Mahmoud Abbas, Ahmed Qurei, et al.) lack gunmen and so will have limited relevance going forward.
The Palestinian territories have already descended into a hellish anarchy, and their circumstances will probably worsen as the strongmen struggle for power. Eventually, two of them will emerge with the ability to negotiate with the Israelis and Americans.
Note, two of them. The geographic division of the West Bank and Gaza, of only minor import until now, looms large upon Arafat's passing. As Jonathan Schanzer has suggested, whoever rules in the one unit is unlikely to gain traction in the other, making the notion of a "Palestine" that much more difficult to promote.
Two Palestines, anyone?
Jonathan Schanzer wrote about the possibility of Gaza-West Bank split in a July/August 2001 article for Mid East Forum.
This very may well be the situation on the ground unless someone in the old guard of the PLO can build a bridge. The only PLO member that might have a shot at holding both territories is Farouk Kaddmouni, though with a Kaddmouni succession there will no peace but a never-ending reign of terror. If Kaddmouni breaks with his principles and enters the territories for Arafat’s funeral in either Ramallah or Gaza count that as him throwing his hat into the ring for the "battle to the death" leadership contest for control of the PLO.
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