Monday, June 26, 2006

Are the Dogs of War Baring Their Teeth?

Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade of the PLO claims to have in its possession chemical and biological weapons reports the Jerusalem Post:
The Aksa Martyrs Brigades announced on Sunday that its members have succeeded in manufacturing chemical and biological weapons. In a leaflet distributed in the Gaza Strip, the group, which belongs to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah Party, said the weapons were the result of a three-year effort.

According to the statement, the first of its kind, the group has managed to manufacture and develop at least 20 different types of biological and chemical weapons. The group said its members would not hesitate to add the new weapons to Kassam rockets that are being fired at Israeli communities almost every day. It also threatened to use the weapons against IDF soldiers if Israel carried out its threats to invade the Gaza Strip.

"We want to tell [Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert and [Defense Minister Amir] Peretz that your threats don't frighten us," the leaflet said. "We will surprise you with our new weapons the moment the first soldier sets foot in the Gaza Strip."

While it always pays to maintain a certain healthy skepticismm when Palestinian terrorists groups claim anything, a three year effort puts the establishment of their WMD program around the time of the coalition invasion of Iraq.

If the PLO does have chemical and biological weapons capacity, could it have been theremnantss of Saddam's chemical arsenal? It has long been suggested that Saddam's chemical cocktails moved to Syria which has traditionally refused any peace overtures with Israel, so in my mind, it would not be such a long shot in the dark to speculate that Damascus would not hesitate to supply the PLO with chemical or biological agents.

Of course, Palestinians from the refugee camps in Syria, Lebanon, the West bank have been filling up the ranks of the insurgents operating in Iraq for sometime and it could be quite plausible that returning insurgents managed to lay their hands on some of Saddam's cocktails. And it has long rumoredoured that various Palestinian agents have been joining forces with an Al-Qaeda presence in the Gaza Strip.

But the timing of the announcement that the PLO has a chemical/biological arsenal may be all bluster, and a response to the deployment of two elite commando units of the IDF which have been mobilized along the Israeli side of the Gaza Strip and are awaiting only the go-ahead from the Prime Minister's office before launching an offensive if this Hindu Times article is accurate:
Jerusalem, June 26 (PTI): Amid escalating tension, Israel has started to amass its forces near the Gaza Strip following the approval of the cabinet headed by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who said Israel would act without any "restraint".

A large contingency of elite Golani and Givati Brigade infantry troops were deployed by midnight on the Israeli side of the Gaza security fence. "The age of restraint has come to an end ... We will respond forcefully, with an operation that will last more than a day or two," Olmert told a special session of the Cabinet last night after some ministers advocated restraint.

The body unanimously authorizedorised Olmert and Defence Minister Amir Peretz to take necessary steps for the Israel Defence forces (IDF) to carry out an operation to secure the release of a soldier kidnapped yesterday in a pre-dawn attack at a military base by Palestinian militants.

Olmert said Israel would not release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release. The Cabinet also agreed to continue employing diplomatic efforts and seeking international pressure to convince the Palestinian militants to release the soldier. At least two soldiers were killed and three others injured in the attack which also claimed several lives among the militants.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting a much more restrained response from the Prime Minister's office:
The security cabinet on Sunday night approved a series of military steps in the Gaza Strip, but put them on hold pending developments regarding the fate of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who was captured Sunday morning near Kerem Shalom.

Earlier Sunday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert placed the blame for the attack squarely on the shoulders of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, perhaps laying the groundwork for a major military operation. "We in Israel hold the Palestinian Authority, headed by President [Mahmoud] Abbas and the Palestinian government, responsible for this incident, with all that implies," he said.

Following an emergency meeting of the security cabinet in Tel Aviv, the Prime Minister's Office put out a statement late Sunday night saying that Israel "will take all the necessary actions to bring about the release of the captured soldier."
It said that this was the main priority, and that the security cabinet approved preparations presented by the defense establishment to achieve this. These steps were not spelled out, with the statement saying only that the cabinet approved the security establishment's recommendation to prepare the necessary forces to carry out "an emergency military action" that would be dependent on the "actions and intentions of the Palestinian Authority."

One official in the Prime Minister's Office said the PA would be given 24 hours to release Shalit, before military steps were approved. He said that the government did not want to prematurely authorize military action that might endanger his life.
According to the statement, the PA "will bear responsibility" for any harm done to Shalit. And, in a hint that the IDF may target Hamas chiefs, the statement continued, "No individual and no organization will have immunity during this period."

In addition to preparations for military action, the statement said diplomatic efforts would continue with the international community to pressure the PA to free Shalit. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni phoned her counterparts around the world to help secure Shalit's release. According to sources in her office, she emphasized that the attack was carried out on Israeli soil and was both planned and perpetrated by Hamas. She said that Israel expected that Abbas, who was presently in Gaza, would remain there and help resolve the crisis. She also said that Israel believed that Abbas had the military capability to "deal with the situation immediately." Livni spoke to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and her counterparts from Jordan, Turkey, Spain, Great Britain, France, Russia, Austria and other countries.

In addition, channels were established with Egypt to get the message through to the Palestinians. This is "yet another test" to see whether Abbas has any real influence, one senior government official said. Even before Sunday's attack, both Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz said that those involved in terrorism would be held accountable by Israel, and that no one, including those in Hamas's political echelon, were "immune." Peretz and the deputy head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), whose name cannot be published, told the ministers that Hamas was a full participant in the attack. The deputy characterized the attack as the "largest, most successful and most serious" since last summer's disengagement.

Ironically, the PRC who takes full responsibility for the offensive launched at Kerem Shalom border is now denying all reports that they are hold IDF Corporal Shalit hostage.While Israel may be massing its forces at the Gaza Strip border neither Prime Minister Olmert nor Defense Minister Peretz has shown themselves to possess the nettle necessary to launch a tactical offensive against anyone other than 14-15 year old Jewish teenagers.

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